SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...

Conditions are coming together for what could be a widespread outbreak for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the Kentuckian region late tonight on into Wednesday morning. 

This morning we have a surface boundary that is expected to move northward today away from the state.  Skies later on this morning / early afternoon are expected to clear out and most of us will see partly to mostly cloudy skies through much of the day.  We all love the sun.. but today.. having the sun out will just make things worse for us as it will cause our atmosphere to become very unstable as the day goes on.  Temperatures today are projected to actually reach the lower 80's across the region as southwest winds continue to pump in rich, moist gulf air into the state.  As we get this rich/moist air into the state today.. you all will start to feel that "sticky" humid feel as dewpoints will rise into the mid to upper 60's.   Some areas across the state in fact could see dewpoints close to 70 degrees...mainly for those of you that live in far Southwest Kentucky.

What I expect to happen is that at first we will see supercell thunderstorms develop later on this evening across Arkasnas, Missouri and Illionis.  These storms (right now) should be near or close to the Kentucky border after 6:00 PM CDT or 7:00 PM EDT.  Later on as the storms progress eastward.. we should see more of a squall line taking shape with supercells start to become embeded within the main line.  Tornadoes will be possible tonight and some of these could be strong.  

My concern right now is always and foremost tornadoes.. but I just don't see a widespread tornadic outbreak event with this system.  It's looking more like a large hail (larger than golf balls) and damaging wind event to me.  I'm sure we will see a few tornadoes, but some of these storms later on this evening could throw down some really big hail.  Plus.. with such a dynamic system and wind field associated with this storm system.. I would not be suprised to see winds reach 80+ MPH later on tonight in some areas.   This is a dangerous weather situation for tonight and everyone needs to really be in tune to the forecast all day today on into the overnight period.

For Bullitt County.. I would look to see severe weather along I-65 sometime near or just after the midnight tonight.  I would also encourage everyone to have a backup plan and supplies on hand... in the event power is out for a day or two in the county.

Continue to monitor our Facebook page for continued updates throughout the afternoon and evening on this pending severe weather event. 

My Facebook http://www.facebook.com/pages/MESOTRACK-The-Kentucky-Weather-Network/262370212138